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KneeJerkNBA - Portland, Oregon.  Hoops fanatic since Bernard King was dropping 50s.

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Fantasy Lab -- Trading for Keepers
Written by Matt Satten   
Wednesday, 03 March 2010 10:31
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In most standard re-draft leagues, the trading deadline will inspire a few moves, with the majority of owners just tinkering here or shoring up a category there. You don’t see very many blockbusters, as the vast majority of playoff-bound teams don’t want to mess with their success. For example, the Celtics didn’t trade Paul Pierce or Kevin Garnett but they were willing to part with Eddie House to land Nate Robinson.

 

In a keeper league, however, the trade deadline often re-shapes the entire landscape of the league from top to bottom. Deadline day can be crazier than Craig Sager’s wardrobe, farfetched as it seems for those of you who have never participated in a keeper league. Craig Sager

That’s because it can breathe new life into every team, playoff-bound or not, because of the promise of next year. With future draft picks at your disposal, you no longer need to find a perfect player-for-player match to make a trade. You can throw in a draft pick to even out a deal, or more commonly, deal a scrub and a top draft pick to a non-playoff team to get a “rental” to bolster your team for the playoffs. It’s a win-win situation for both teams and if you’re serious about hoisting the trophy, you’re going to have to make a move or two to stay ahead of your closest competitors.

 

The other option though, and the main focus of the Fantasy Lab today, is a non-playoff team trying to score a top keeper from a playoff-bound team, and to do it without giving up a draft pick if at all possible. These deals happen less frequently than Andris Biedrins sinking consecutive free throws since they’re usually initiated by the non-playoff team and requires the team thinking “Championship!” to trade away one of their most valuable players. Floundering in seventh place in a keeper league with six playoff teams, I decided to see if I could cash in my players who I did not intend to keep in order to upgrade my keepers. Remarkably, I managed to nab Chris Paul from the first place team. Using this deal as a guide, The Lab will walk you through the process to land your own stud keeper, provided you’re not in it to win it—this year.

Hit the jump for the meat of the article...

The last few days before deadline day is the best time of year to try to land a stud keeper that their owner would never even consider trading on a normal day. Sure you might risk insulting the Kevin Durant owner in your league by merely broaching the topic of a trade (as I did), but you can’t get what you don’t ask for. It’s late in the season and injuries have left holes in a once potent lineup for many playoff-bound teams. The waiver wire is thinner than Jeff Van Gundy’s hair. Other teams around them are making additions and there’s an increasing feeling of needing to make a power play to keep alive their One Shining Moment chances. The deadline creates pressure to “get something done” and that’s when owners become a little vulnerable as they’re anxious to improve their squads with victory seemingly in their grasp.

 

It’s your job to identify two things now: 1) keepers you covet on playoff-bound teams and 2) the playoff teams with obvious holes in their lineup. Once you know these two things, see where there’s an overlap and those keepers become your targets. You’ll also want to make sure you know your own team well, specifically who you intend to keep to build your team around next year. You have to be willing to say good-bye to everyone else because it’s going to take multiple talented players to land a top keeper. In typical three-man keeper leagues (or more), you can have a pretty good semblance of where your category strengths and weaknesses lie and develop a trade strategy from there. One or two-man keeper leagues, this isn’t a concern because you’re trying to land the best player(s) available.

 

For my team, I had kept Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh and Monta Ellis heading into this year. I was fortunate enough to also own Russell Westbrook, Tyreke Evans and Tyrus Thomas. I decided that Dirk and Tyreke were worth keeping but I wanted to parlay Bosh—a top 10 talent this year—and another player into an even better keeper. The reasons are three-fold: 1) Bosh’s future is uncertain as he’s expected to opt out and could end up on a team with another max-contract player depressing his numbers 2) he’s playing for a contract and having a career-year, meaning a decline is likely and 3) he has a long history of knee injuries and missing games.

Bosh

Looking at the list of potential keepers you developed, you’ll probably notice a few players who are injured now. These players make excellent targets since they’re not helping their current team at this time and they’ve usually left a crater in their lineup. CP3 is a prime example of this and it was the main reason I was able to acquire his services. Other players you might consider going after depending on how deep your league is include Bosh, Monta Ellis, Joakim Noah, Blake Griffin, Anthony Randolph, Yao Ming, Greg Oden and the suspended Gilbert Arenas.

 

Other prime targets are players who might get shut down during the fantasy playoffs a.k.a. the end of the regular season, though you’ll have to be more convincing in your negotiations. Perhaps last week’s Fantasy Lab regarding shutdown candidates can provide some support. Playoff-bound teams having to rely on the likes of Al Jefferson, Devin Harris, Baron Davis and Danny Granger to name a few are praying these guys don’t leave them hanging. In turn, the owner might be more willing to do a two-for-one or three-for-one with the promise of stability across a couple of positions versus the possibility of zero production from a key contributor when it’s needed most.

 

Before you start to make offers, figure out which two-man package from your team will land you the best keeper. Now be willing to increase that to a three-man package because while your two-man offer might be fair, you’re going to need to overwhelm the current owner with a big offer to get something done.

 

Knowing your best two-man and three-man offers, it’s now time to float these out to a few different teams. You don’t want just one offer out there; it’s important to have a few irons in the fire. Not only does this help you better gauge the market value of the players you’re offering, but it also creates competition for your players, which you can leverage into a better deal.

 



 

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